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The Path of Least Resistance

Sir Isaac Newton was born in England in 1642 and is considered one of the greatest scientists and mathematicians that ever lived. He lived for 85 years. In college, he had strong ideas about motion and broke them down into three laws which I will explain in simple terms below.

Law 1:  An object at rest remains at rest unless acted on by an unbalanced force. An object in motion continues in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.

Law 2:  Acceleration is produced when a force acts on a mass. The greater the mass, the greater the amount of force needed.

Law 3:  For every action, there is a equal and opposite reaction.

So often, in an effort to continue to learn to invest, traders want to add more strategies to their trading tool kit, add more indicators, more information from the latest best selling trading book, and so on…it never ends. What most people fail to see is that there are a few basic principles that don’t change. Gravity is one that comes to mind and there are a few more. At the core of any significant economic, political, scientific, social, medical, psychological or cultural theory lies a quest to understand and quantify the forces of change, action, or energy. The theories that attempt to quantify “force” that have stood the test of time, date back centuries and are extremely simple. In 1686, noted physicist Isaac Newton suggested in his laws of motion that an object will remain in motion until it is met with an equal or greater force. Noted economist Adam Smith suggested hundreds of years ago in his book “The Wealth of Nations” that when supply exceeds demand at a price level in a given market, price will decline. Smith and Newton didn’t create or invent the laws and principles for which they are famous. Supply, demand, motion, and the relationships therein existed long before Smith and Newton, long before humans walked the earth for that matter. What these two individuals did, however, was look mass conventional perception in the face and challenge it with a reality that had been there all along. They were able to discover what no one else had because of a belief system that allowed them to open doors others never knew existed. If you notice, Newton and Smith didn’t figure out one specific issue. They had a belief system that allowed them to rather easily apply the core principles of their knowledge to a host of issues, producing answers the rest of the world still considers “ingenious,” centuries later.

Let’s apply what Newton formulated a few hundred years ago to an opportunity in the market this week. Last Friday, the NASDAQ (QQQ) reached an area of supply (A). This was an area of supply because our “Odds Enhancers” told us so. Having a good idea of where price will turn is very important, but there is one more equally important question: where will it go after turning? Area (B) is an unfilled gap that is just below current price as of Monday morning. Meaning, there is little to no demand in area (B) or even just below area (B) for that matter. If we apply Newton’s thinking here, price should decline. The only thing that will stop a decline in price is if a new “force” enters the equation in the form of demand.

NASDAQ (QQQ) – 60 Min Chart. 1/7/2013

In the XLT (Extended Learning Track), our graduate online trading and training program, we start most live trading sessions doing exactly what we did here, identify the path of least resistance for price and most of the time, price goes exactly where we thought it would. Applying the simple “motion into mass” concept first and foremost is a key edge for those who use it. While it is very simple, most of the world will consider other pieces of information first when attempting to determine where price will turn and where it will go. Typically news, fundamentals, and indicators are the starting point for most traders. Another key is the ability to identify proper “force” on a chart, meaning fresh demand and supply.

If Newton were a trader, I suspect he would be a good one as he already has a solid strategy that has proven itself for a few hundred years. I am not suggesting you throw away whatever strategy you are using now and jump into what I’m suggesting here, which is what we do at Online Trading Academy. Start with simply looking at charts with the motion into mass, supply and demand thought in mind. Start identifying these opportunities. Once you are comfortable and confident, then make your switch.

Hope this was helpful, have a great day.

Sam Seiden


DISCLAIMER This newsletter is written for educational purposes only. By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and Investing involves high levels of risk. The author expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. The author may or may not have positions in Financial Instruments discussed in this newsletter. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Reprints allowed for private reading only, for all else, please obtain permission.

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