Lessons from the Pros


Anticipating The Change in Trend

In conventional technical analysis the mantra is, “The trend is your friend .” In other words, identifying the trend is first and foremost in the analysis. This is so that the trades that are taken are always in the direction of the prevailing trend.  This type of “trend following” strategy is fine provided there’s a strong trend and that the trend persists long enough to produce profits.  The fact is, that although markets do tend to trend in the longer term, in the short term they spend a good portion of the time moving sideways.  I have found that very few traders have the mental fortitude to sit through the range bound spells. Typically what happens is that traders become impatient and exit their trades, invariably, right before the next leg of the move gets underway.

In the charts below we can see that although these two markets ( the Euro and Copper) futures are in a clearly defined downtrend on a daily time frame, they spent weeks going sideways before resuming their downward slide. This may be surprising to some, but this is where the challenges that I mentioned before come into play.

sideways market

sideways market

In my experience, another challenge traders have implementing this trend following strategy is knowing when the trend has changed direction. In addition, identifying those periods where there isn’t a strong trend or there is a range bound market can also be a hurdle to consistent profitability.

Often times, when price exhibits the earliest signs of a trend change it’s too late for traders to find the lowest risk trades, primarily because there are many false fits and starts before a trend gains momentum.   In conventional technical analysis, a trend change is demonstrated by price holding prior highs or lows and then changing the direction. In other words, if a downtrend is defined as a series of lower lows and lower highs, then price would have to reverse that pattern and start forming a series of  higher highs and higher lows.  This is how most traders learn to trade.

Free Trading WorkshopInstead, here at Online Trading Academy, we teach students that if you acquire the skill of learning to identify high quality levels of supply and demand you can actually anticipate where the trend is likely to reverse. This flies in the face of conventional thinking because everyone has been indoctrinated in the notion that trying to pick tops and bottoms is a fool’s game. However, it can be done if this skill is learned. And yes, it’s all about probabilities and not everyone can do it because although it seems simple, it’s actually very difficult.

In its most simplistic form, the idea is that smaller time frame trends tend to reverse at larger time supply and demand levels. Below we can see a couple of examples of this in two of the largest equity markets in world: the S&P 500 E-mini and The Dow Mini contracts.

trend reversal


The key is to identify the strongest supply and demand levels as this would suggest that in these zones is where we would have the most amount of unfilled orders; and by the time these levels are touched all of the buying (in a strong uptrend) or selling (in a strong downtrend) has been exhausted.  Furthermore, these zones give a trader the lowest risk opportunities to enter a trend at its inception. Keep in mind that doing this consistently requires a lot of skill.

If this intrigues you, then stop by one of our offices or sign up for a local workshop to learn more.

Until next I hope everyone has a great week.

DISCLAIMER This newsletter is written for educational purposes only. By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and Investing involves high levels of risk. The author expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. The author may or may not have positions in Financial Instruments discussed in this newsletter. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Reprints allowed for private reading only, for all else, please obtain permission.

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