Monday Morning Must-Knows - June 30, 2025

Monday Morning Must-Knows by Trading Academy

June 30, 2025

Will Tariffs and Tensions Shake Markets?

Markets face a quiet, holiday-shortened week but several catalysts remain. Tariff uncertainty lingers ahead of the July 9 deadline for possible U.S.-China reciprocity, while tensions among Iran, Israel and the U.S. keep geopolitical risk elevated. 

Core PCE rose 0.2% versus 0.1% expected, reinforcing expectations that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will wait until September, not July, to cut rates. 

Earnings are sparse—only 93 firms report and Constellation Brands is the lone heavyweight on Tuesday; exchanges close early Thursday (July 3) and shut Friday for Independence Day.

Macro data will dominate: Tuesday’s JOLTS openings, Wednesday’s ADP payrolls, then a rare Thursday triple-header of weekly claims, non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate (steady at 4.2% is key). At 9:30 a.m. ET. 

Tuesday, Powell, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda share a policy panel at the ECB Forum, offering global rate clues that could jolt FX markets. Expect light volumes and potentially outsized swings; crypto trades as usual.

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