Monday Morning Must-Knows - February 16, 2026

Monday Morning Must-Knows by Trading Academy

February 16, 2026

GDP Expected to Drop 36% While Core PCE Inches Higher

Volatility keeps pouring into these markets with wild moves in both directions. This week brings 534 earnings reports, a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, and two major US economic releases that traders need on their radar. Advanced GDP is expected to fall from 4.4% to 2.8%, and Core PCE inflation is expected to tick up from 0.2% to 0.3%.

In this episode of Monday Morning Must Knows, Merlin Rothfeld walks through the full earnings calendar featuring Walmart, Palo Alto Networks, John Deere, and Carvana. He breaks down the RBNZ rate decision on Tuesday, explains why the GDP drop from 4.4% to 2.8% is already priced in, and flags the Core PCE reading on Friday as the number to watch. With unemployment slowly dropping and inflation slowly rising, the Fed now faces a tough call at their March meeting.

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