I have been in the trading business for nearly 20 years as a trader, fund manager, and trainer, beginning on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. While I feel like I have seen it all, the one thing that still surprises me is how most traders handle breakouts. Most traders seem to let emotion complicate what can really be a simple, rule-based, and very profitable strategy. Trading breakouts can be high risk, high stress, low reward, and low probability or this strategy can be low risk, low stress, high reward, and high probability. The difference lies in how you enter into this type of position.
Before getting into the details of the strategy, it’s important to understand two key components of markets.
1) Why do prices move in any market? Price in any market turns at price levels where demand and supply are out of balance. The consistently profitable trader is able to identify a demand and supply imbalance which means knowing where the REAL buyers and sellers are in a market. By quantifying institutional demand and supply areas on a price chart, you can identify market turns and market moves in advance with a very high degree of accuracy.
2) Who is on the other side of your trade? Trading is simply a transfer of accounts from those who don’t know what they are doing into the accounts of those who do. The consistently profitable trader makes sure a novice trader is on the other side of their trades.
Notice area “A”. Area “A” is the origin of a strong rally in price. Most breakout traders will look to buy as price breaks out to the upside from area “A”. This type of breakout entry is typically the “sucker bet.” Traders see price moving higher from area “A” and they give in to emotion and buy into that initial rally. The problem is that by the time you buy the breakout of area “A”, price has moved so far that it becomes a high risk and low reward trade. Instead, I sit back and let the breakout happen because that breakout tells me that there is a demand and supply imbalance at area “A”, this is exactly where the buyers are. Next, I wait for price to return to area “A”. When it does at “C”, I am a very interested buyer as I am confident I am buying from a novice seller. I know this because the seller at “C” is making the two mistakes that every consistent losing (novice) trader makes. First, they are selling after a period of selling and second, they are selling at a price level where demand exceeds supply.
For longs, many identify a market in an uptrend by using a 20 period moving average (I don’t). Next, identify the origin of a strong move and draw two lines around the price action to create a demand zone (area “A). Make sure the demand level has the pattern that represents where banks and institutions are buying as that is key. Then, make sure there is a significant profit margin (profit target). This would be the distance from area “A” to “B”, the highest high of the initial breakout before price returns to “A” at “C”.
Buy at “C” when price touches the top black line and place your protective sell stop just below the lower black line. Adjust your position size so that you are not risking more than you are willing to lose. Place your profit target based on the high of the initial breakout “B” which in this case would have you selling for a profit at “D”.
Notice this recent trade taken in the DAX last week. The yellow area represents a price level where demand exceeds supply. We know this in part because of the strong breakout from the level. This breakout is where most traders would buy. Of course, you only know its a breakout after it happens so you would be buying while price is rallying which is not low risk or high reward. As you can see, price quickly turns and comes back to the demand zone which is where we bought as that is the low risk high reward, and high probability entry point. Also, our long entry price point (at demand) is typically where the breakout buyer puts their sell stop. So, the proper entry point for this trade is not the original breakout from the demand level, its the first pullback. The breakout entry is almost always the sucker bet.
The proper breakout entry works in any market and any time frame. A key component to making these work that is beyond the scope of this article is this: When taking any buy or sell entries in markets, make sure you know exactly where price is with regard to the larger time frame supply / demand curve. Whether you trade Stocks, Futures, Forex, and Options, understand that behind all the candles on your screen in all these markets are people and their emotions. Most will fall for the emotional breakout trading traps set by fear and greed, others get paid from this novice group.
Hope this was helpful. Have a great day.