|
The Morning Gap, Low Risk Opportunity for the Astute Market Speculator
Whether I am trading or instructing a stock, futures, or options class at Online Trading Academy, our lowest risk and highest reward trade each day is typically the opening gap entry. As soon as I suggest the trade to the class, someone always says: "I was told we are not supposed to trade the open because it is not for the novice trader". That is not exactly what we say at Online Trading Academy. What we say is that the open is not for the novice trader. It is, however, a fantastic opportunity for the astute trader who knows how to identify a novice trader. Most of the time, our entry is within seconds to minutes of the opening bell. There is a reason for this…
Why do prices gap up? They gap up because there are more buy orders at the open than there is available supply at the prior day's closing price. They gap down because there are more sell orders at the open than willing demand at the prior day's close. Therefore, market prices are almost always at price levels where there is a supply and demand imbalance (opportunity) at the open. Never forget, the successful market speculator simply finds markets where price is at levels where supply and demand are out of balance and trades them back to price levels where supply and demand is in balance. I started in this business on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, handling institution and retail order flow. Watching that order flow made it easy to see where prices were going to turn. For example, if we had 10 buyers and 5 sellers at a price level, as soon as the 5th seller sold, price had to rise. Having the orders in your hand makes this easy to see. Knowing exactly what this picture looks like on a price chart makes it even easier.
This week in the markets represented obvious opportunities related to gaps and order flow. We took advantage of them in class here in Chicago each day. We will do the same thing in Boston next week as two things never change. First, order flow works the same way it did 100 years ago and never changes. Second, novice traders are always present and are only growing in numbers. Here is how it all works…
Below we have a chart of the S&P as seen through the SPY, the ETF for the S&P. "A" represents a resistance (supply) level. We know this because price could not stay at that level, it had to fall because there are more willing sellers than buyers at that level. "B" is a day this week where price gapped right into that resistance (supply) level at the open. Here, the novice trader buys and the astute trader sells to that buyer. Remember, a supply level is a price level where there are more sellers than buyers. The last thing you want to do is buy at that price level and that is exactly what the novice trader did that morning on the open. In class here, we sold to that buyer and profited on the decline in price. We know this is a novice buyer because only a consistent losing trader would buy a gap up, after a rally in price, and into an objective supply level. The very next day at the open "E", price gapped down into an objective demand level "D". Only a novice trader would sell a gap down, after a decline in price, and into an objective demand (support) level, "D". We simply bought from that novice seller and profited nicely on the trades. The very next day at the open "C", price gapped up right into an objective supply level, "A" and "B". That short entry at "C" was very low risk and high reward but you had to be trading at or near the open to get that low risk short entry which was true for all the gap entries for the week.
The key is to not look at candles on your screen as red and green pictures and patterns. You must understand what is happening behind the scenes. Whether you're trading stocks, futures, options, or forex, the logic and rules never change.
Again, the market imbalances are greatest at or near the open of trading in all markets. By the end of the first hour of trading each day, a large amount of novice trading capital is simply transferred into the accounts of the astute trader. If you can't see the novice trader in markets, you likely are the novice trader.
If you have any questions or comments, email any time.
Have a great day!
- Sam Seiden, sseiden@tradingacademy.com
|
|
Sam brings over 15 years experience of equities, forex, options, and futures trading which began when he was on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He has traded equities, futures, interest rate markets, forex, options, and commodities for his personal interests for years and has educated hundreds of traders and investors through seminars and daily advisory services both domestically and internationally. Sam has been involved in the markets since 1991 both on and off the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He has served as the Director of Technical Research for two trading firms and regularly contributes articles to industry publications. Sam is known for his trading, technical research, and educational guidance.