Newton’s first law of motion states that every object in a state of motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it. For trading, the two “forces” are supply and demand. While I often discuss the forces in articles, another key piece that I have wrote about the past two weeks is identifying price levels in a market where there is a major lack of supply and demand (force). At Online Trading Academy, we call this “profit zone” but it’s the same thing.
It is important to find price levels where there is a major supply and demand imbalance as that is where prices turn. However, it is equally important to find price levels where there is very little demand or supply (force) as these are areas where price will move through with ease. Let’s look at a recent example from last week’s Extended Learning Track Live Trading session to illustrate this point.
XLT Live Trading: 6/11/14 – S&P Trade, the Setup
Notice the chart above. During a live trading session with our Director of Instructor Development, Chuck Fulkerson, he identified a price level where supply exceeded demand, where financial institutions were selling the S&P. This level scored out as a 9 according to our rule based Odds Enhancers and one of the most important reasons was the “profit zone.” The setup was to sell short if and when price rallied back to that supply level. In that case, someone would be buying after a rally in price, into a price level where supply exceeded demand, near QQQ larger time frame supply, and so on. We are more than willing to sell to that novice buyer. The risk is low, reward high, and the odds are stacked in our favor as the seller. Next, we would have to wait to see if anyone thought the S&P was worth buying at that price.
XLT Live Trading: 6/11/14 – S&P Trade, The Result
Later in the day, price rallied back to the supply (the force), allowing banks and OTA students to sell short to buyers who thought the S&P was worth buying at that level. Price then turned lower and kept falling because there was NO FORCE (demand) to stop it. The lack of force was evident prior to entering the trade and this information is a must in my opinion. Identifying the lack of force is just as important as identifying the force. The nice part is that once you completely understand this concept, there is nothing else to consider when predicting market turns and market moves. This is the key to short term trading for income and long term trading for wealth.
Hope this was helpful, have a great day.
Sam Seiden – firstname.lastname@example.org